Cina-Russia: un'alleanza che va oltre l'energia - Repubblica Affari&Finanza

Propongo oggi un'interessante analisi di Giampaolo Visetti (Repubblica) riguardante il recente accordo Cina-Russia per la fornitura di greggio e gas naturale.

Ancora una volta l'articolo fa capire quanto l'energia sia un settore di altissimo valore strategico, e da qualche parte, come in Russia e in Cina, l'hanno capito molto bene.

Buona lettura.

Le prime due economie emergenti, alleate storiche per una parte del Novecento, uniscono le forze per ricostruire il blocco travolto dall'implosione dell'Urss

Cina e Russia hanno raggiunto l'accordo che consentirà, nei prossimi dieci anni, di continuare a crescere sia al primo consumatore che al primo produttore di energia al mondo. A firmare il contratto record, a Pechino, il premier cinese Li Keqiang e quello russo Dmitry Medvedev. L'intesa prevede che Mosca fornisca, in un decennio, altri 100 milioni di tonnellate di petrolio, in cambio di 85 miliardi di dollari. Quasi chiuso anche il patto sul gas. Gazprom invierà in Cina 38 miliardi di metri cubi di gas naturale, volume che consentirà alla seconda economia mondiale di diminuire la dipendenza dal carbone, che la sta soffocando. Dal 2018 le forniture saliranno a 60 miliardi di metri cubi. Cina e Russia, grazie al via libera sul patto energetico, hanno firmato anche altri 21 accordi di cooperazione bilaterale, che potrebbero consentire ai due Paesi di varcare entro il 2015 la soglia dei 100 miliardi di dollari di interscambio. L'intesa trasforma Pechino e Mosca, reciprocamente, nei primi due partner commerciali. A partire dal 2005 la Cina ha investito ogni anno in Russia una cifra tra i 300 e i 600 milioni di dollari, mentre Mosca non ha mai superato i 30. Il salto di qualità è evidente. Nel 2012 Pechino ha importato dalla Russia 276 milioni di tonnellate e l'ex Urss è stata solo il suo quarto fornitore di greggio. Se l'intesa sul petrolio è conclusa, resta da definire il prezzo per il gas. «Ma la cooperazione energetica tra Cina e Russia - ha rassicurato Medvedev - è il passaggio fondamentale nell'alleanza tra i Paesi in crescita e a beneficiarne sarà l'intera ripresa economica mondiale». Anche il presidente cinese Xi Jinping ha confermato che un accordo sul prezzo del gas è solo questione di dettagli. «Ormai - ha detto il neo-leader cinese - Cina e Russia sono partner strategici di nome e di fatto». Enormi le conseguenze per il mercato petrolifero. La russa Rosneft, gigante dell'energia siberiana, nei prossimi dieci anni invierà in Cina circa 70 milioni di barili di greggio all'anno. Incasserà una montagna di denaro, che potrà investire nel restauro delle vecchie condotte, oltre che in nuovi oleodotti. Forte dell'accordo con la Cina, sarà anche nelle condizioni di trattare prezzi più vantaggiosi con gli altri clienti stranieri, a partire da quelli della zona euro. I mercati hanno subito compreso che il rinnovato asse Mosca-Pechino supera ampiamente gli interessi energetici. Pechino e Mosca hanno firmato un documento politico in base al quale «entrambi i Paesi continueranno a migliorare il coordinamento strategico, per mantenere la loro autorità nelle Nazioni Unite e nel consiglio di sicurezza, in modo da promuovere congiuntamente la pace, la stabilità e lo sviluppo nel mondo». Ciò significa che l'alleanza su petrolio e gas rafforza lo storico blocco comunista sui più scottanti dossier internazionali, dalla Siria alla Corea del Nord, riducendo fortemente i margini di manovra degli Stati Uniti, in difficoltà sia in Africa che in Asia. Tra Pechino e Mosca l'intesa è oggi evidente. Valdimir Putin e Xi Jiping, in un anno si sono incontrati cinque volte: il presidente cinese ha visto Barack Obama solo una volta, per un weekend in maniche di camicia in un ranch privato, snobbato in extremis da Michelle, che ha rinunciato a conoscere la collega first lady. Pechino riempirà dunque i forzieri del Cremlino, consolidando l'impero di Putin. I russi, rendendo possibile la lotta cinese all'inquinamento, contribuiranno invece in misura decisiva alla stabilità interna della nuova leadership cinese.

Grazie all'energia, un universo che si ricompone.

Shell writedown is bad news for US shale (FT)

Over the past few years, the oil majors have been punch drunk on US shale.

Now comes the hangover.

By Guy Chazan (Financial Times)

Royal Dutch Shell surprised the market on Thursday with a $2.1bn impairment, mostly on its liquids-rich shale properties in North America.

The writedown showed that the results from Shell’s exploration drilling for oil in its US shale acreage have been much worse than it anticipated. “Shale oil bulls take note,” wrote Oswald Clint of Bernstein Research.

The news was sobering for a sector used to upbeat headlines. Production of tight oil in places such as North Dakota’s Bakken shale has increased so fast that it has reversed the decades-long decline in US oil output, reducing America’s reliance on oil imports and even fuelling talk of US energy independence.

Shell’s news shows that some of the breathless rhetoric about shale’s potential may be unwarranted – a view Peter Voser, its chief executive, appears to endorse. The idea of a shale revolution spreading from the US across the world is “a little bit overhyped,” he told reporters on Thursday.

Shale impairments are nothing new. A clutch of companies, including BHP Billiton and BG Group, wrote down their US shale gas assets last year, as the low price of American natural gas reduced the value of their reserves. But it is far less common for the oil majors to take charges on their tight oil properties.

The impairment highlights a broader problem for Shell – the weak performance of its Upstream Americas business. It incurred a loss in the second quarter, and Shell says it will probably stay in loss for the rest of the year, and possibly longer.

Analysts at Credit Suisse say Shell’s performance in its upstream – or exploration and production – division is a “real worry”.

Ever since the oil industry figured out how to use hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” and horizontal drilling to extract gas from shale formations, the US “unconventional” gas story has had an irresistible allure for the supermajors.

Shell has been more gung-ho than most. In 2008, it paid $5.7bn to buy Duvernay Oil, which held promising tight gas acreage in western Canada. Two years later, it paid $4.7bn for East Resources. which held big positions in the Marcellus Shale.

Shell says that its North American onshore gas portfolio now includes about 3.5m acres of mineral rights, with the potential to yield 40tn cubic feet of gas – the energy equivalent of nearly 7bn barrels of oil.

But some analysts have said it paid too high a price to gain entry into the sector. And such a large position proved a double-edged sword last year when the shale gas supply surge pushed gas prices to 10-year lows.

Shell said at the time that it would switch its focus from gas to more profitable “liquids-rich shales” and Simon Henry, chief financial officer, said the company would produce 250,000 barrels of oil a day from its tight oil properties in five years’ time.

But that could end up being way too optimistic. Mr Henry admitted on Thursday that the results of Shell’s exploration efforts in US tight oil had been disappointing, and “the production curve is less positive than we originally expected”. As of today, the company is only producing 50,000 b/d from these properties, he said.

Shell’s experience has been echoed by others. Oil companies who rushed to buy acreage in Ohio’s Utica shale a few years ago have discovered the rock is not as porous as in other formations such as Texas’ Eagle Ford or the Bakken, and there is less natural pressure underground to help force the oil out. Many companies are now trying to sell their holdings there.

Shell, it seems, is taking a similar tack: it has launched a strategic review of its North American shale portfolio, with the aim of halving the number of areas it operates in there. Mr Voser says the company wants to divest some small-scale properties which “are still prospective and can produce, but do not have the size we are looking for”.

And perhaps driven by the bad news from US shale, Shell says it is dropping its medium-term production target – once considered a touchstone for investors.

Analysts were unfazed. “No one [externally at least] believed it anyway,” said Neill Morton of Investec.

Financial Times: Gulf oil production hits record

"Despite the shale revolution, the Middle East is and will remain the heart of global oil industry for some time to come". I think that these words of Fatih Birol (IEA) are enough to explain the topic of the following article of Ajay Makan (Financial Times). The shale revolution is already a reality in US, but, as last data say, it's still far to seriously threat the "Gulf states supremacy".

The Gulf states are producing more oil than ever before, defying expectations that the US shale revolution would break their 40-year grip on the global oil market and diminish their importance to the world’s consuming nations. 

Surging production in North America is expected to eat into the market for oil from Opec. But the quartet of Gulf kingdoms that dominate the cartel of oil exporters have so far emerged unscathed. Instead, they have expanded their share of the world market as political and social factors have reduced production from a number other members. 

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar set aggregate production records in each of the last three months, according to fresh estimates from the International Energy Agency. In September they accounted for 18 per cent of global demand – a level only matched twice in IEA data stretching back to the 1980s.

“Despite the shale revolution, the Middle East is and will remain the heart of global oil industry for some time to come,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist said.

US crude oil production has increased by 50 per cent since 2008 and the country is expected to meet the lion’s share of the world’s growing demand over the next five years. But while US companies tend to maximise production to generate more profits, the Gulf states – and Saudi Arabia in particular – invest heavily to maintain spare capacity.

That has allowed them to raise production to offset a run of disruptions across the Middle East and Africa in the last two years. US-led sanctions have reduced Iranian production by 1m barrels a day since the start of last year, while civil unrest has returned this summer to Libya and crude oil theft increased in Nigeria. 

As a result Gulf states are capturing more of the fast growing Asian market. India imported 44 per cent of its crude from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE in July, up from 36 per cent in 2011, while China relies on the countries for a quarter of its imports compared to 21 per cent in 2007.

A rapid return to production among other Opec members, for example through a resolution to Iran’s nuclear standoff with the US, could yet leave the Gulf states exposed to the US shale revolution. And some analysts argue that Opec could yet need to discuss production cuts when its oil ministers next meet in Vienna in December.

The record output has provided a windfall for the oil-dependent monarchies. The 16.4m barrels a day produced by the four states during the third quarter was worth more than $150bn at today’s prices of more than $100 a barrel. 

The principal beneficiaries have been Saudi Arabia, which has increased output more than 10 per cent since the start of the year to a record of 10.19m b/d in August, and the UAE where the 2.77m b/d produced in September was a record, and 7 per cent higher than at the start of the year. Kuwait has also set a series of production records this year, but Qatar has been unable to raise production significantly. 

It also means the region remains crucial to the world’s major powers. The US continues to import almost 60m barrels a month from the Gulf, a number that has actually increased in the last three years even as US imports overall have fallen. 

Cantico delle Creature - San Francesco d'Assisi

Per uno scout nell'anima come me, il Cantico delle Creature è un po' come un manifesto.

Mi riporta alla memoria la strada, le attività con i frati francescani che ho avuto la fortuna di fare, ma soprattutto mi fa ricordare la Natura che tante volte mi sono fermato ad ammirare a bocca aperta, e tramite Lei lodare il Nostro Signore.

Buona lettura.

Altissimu, onnipotente, bon Signore,
tue so’ le laude, la gloria e l’honore et onne benedictione.

Ad te solo, Altissimo, se konfàno et nullu homo è ne dignu te mentovare.

Laudato sie, mi’ Signore, cum tucte le tue creature, spetialmente messor lo frate sole, lo qual’è iorno, et allumini noi per lui. Et ellu è bellu e radiante cum grande splendore, de te, Altissimo, porta significatione.

Laudato si’, mi’ Signore, per sora luna e le stelle, in celu l’ài formate clarite et pretiose et belle.

Laudato si’, mi’ Signore, per frate vento et per aere et nubilo et sereno et onne tempo, per lo quale a le tue creature dai sustentamento.

Laudato si’, mi’ Signore, per sor’aqua, la quale è multo utile et humile et pretiosa et casta.

Laudato si’, mi' Signore, per frate focu, per lo quale ennallumini la nocte, et ello è bello et iocundo et robustoso et forte.

Laudato si’, mi’ Signore, per sora nostra matre terra, la quale ne sustenta et governa, et produce diversi fructi con coloriti flori et herba.

Laudato si’, mi’ Signore, per quelli ke perdonano per lo tuo amore, et sostengo infirmitate et tribulatione.

Beati quelli ke 'l sosterrano in pace, ka da te, Altissimo, sirano incoronati.

Laudato si’ mi’ Signore per sora nostra morte corporale, da la quale nullu homo vivente pò skappare: guai a quelli ke morrano ne le peccata mortali; beati quelli ke trovarà ne le tue santissime voluntati, ka la morte secunda no 'l farrà male.

Laudate et benedicete mi’ Signore' et ringratiate et serviateli cum grande humilitate.